Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
